Nebraska State Climatologist Al Dutcher gives you his thoughts each week on his outlooks for the coming few days. These are scheduled to update every Tuesday or as conditions warrant. Check back often.
Posted
in Al Dutcher's Blog
at 09:40AM on 11/18/2009
The first significant weather event of November brought heavy, wet snow to extreme southern Nebraska from Hebron eastward through Falls City. Snowfall totals ranged from 3-10 inches, with water ratio's in the 3.5-1 to 5-1 ratios. Very sloppy snow that did bring down power lines in a few areas. Although no crop damage reports have been relayed to my office, I suspect that the snow probably brought down some standing corn and milo.
For the next 10-14 days, forecast models indicate the greatest potential for significant weather lies with a system currently projected to move across northern Oklahoma from late on 11/23 through early on 11/25. Current projections indicate the KS/NE border region will be under the gun for possible accumulations of wet, heavy snow. A slightly northward track would bring the southern 1/3 of the state under the snow, while a track slightly south of the present forecast would leave the state high and dry.. At this time, not significant weather is expected across the central Plains during the Thanksgiving weekend, but the models become very aggressive with storm activity by 11/30. Temperatures may be below normal across the eastern half of the state, while normal to above normal temperatures are possible across the western half of the state. Several possible storms are projected to move across the central Plains with the potential to bring accumulating snow and/or ice during the first week of December. Since these storms are almost 14 days into the future, confidence is low about their placement and strength.
Al
Allen Dutcher - State Climatologist
Nebraska State Climate Office
School of Natural Resources
University of Nebraska - Lincoln
724 Hardin Hall
3310 Holdredge Street
Lincoln, NE 68583-0987
Phone: (402)-472-5206
Fax: (402)-472-8763
email: adutcher1@unl.edu
SNR web site: http://snr.unl.edu
For the next 10-14 days, forecast models indicate the greatest potential for significant weather lies with a system currently projected to move across northern Oklahoma from late on 11/23 through early on 11/25. Current projections indicate the KS/NE border region will be under the gun for possible accumulations of wet, heavy snow. A slightly northward track would bring the southern 1/3 of the state under the snow, while a track slightly south of the present forecast would leave the state high and dry.. At this time, not significant weather is expected across the central Plains during the Thanksgiving weekend, but the models become very aggressive with storm activity by 11/30. Temperatures may be below normal across the eastern half of the state, while normal to above normal temperatures are possible across the western half of the state. Several possible storms are projected to move across the central Plains with the potential to bring accumulating snow and/or ice during the first week of December. Since these storms are almost 14 days into the future, confidence is low about their placement and strength.
Al
Allen Dutcher - State Climatologist
Nebraska State Climate Office
School of Natural Resources
University of Nebraska - Lincoln
724 Hardin Hall
3310 Holdredge Street
Lincoln, NE 68583-0987
Phone: (402)-472-5206
Fax: (402)-472-8763
email: adutcher1@unl.edu
SNR web site: http://snr.unl.edu
Photos
Posted
in Al Dutcher's Blog
at 07:47AM on 11/12/2009
Anyway here is what the models are hinting at. A low pressure trough will cross the Plains and bring an increasing chance for rain from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening. The best coverage by the models appears to be across the northwestern 1/2 of the state, with the lightest totals across southeastern Nebraska. Cold air will be drawn into the region on the backside of the exiting low pressure system Saturday. A powerful wave looks to develop across the central Plains on Sunday. Weather models offer three different solutions to this storm, (1) split the energy north and south of Nebraska allowing us to escape most of significant moisture (2) develop a surface low along the NE/KS border and slowly move it eastward bring accumulating snow and/or rain to the southern half of the state (3) drop the low pressure into Oklahoma and keeping most of the moisture across Kansas and points east. Solution 1 looks the least likely, with an even split between 2 and 3. Producers should definitely keep track of this developing storm as it could produce wet snow if the NE/KS border track materializes. After the system moves east of the Plains on Tuesday, weather models indicate an absence of significant weather (precip) impacting Nebraska through the 27th. I suspect this dry forecast will likely change by next weeks update.
Al
Allen Dutcher - State Climatologist
Nebraska State Climate Office
School of Natural Resources
University of Nebraska - Lincoln
724 Hardin Hall
3310 Holdredge Street
Lincoln, NE 68583-0987
Phone: (402)-472-5206
Fax: (402)-472-8763
email: adutcher1@unl.edu
SNR web site: http://snr.unl.edu
Photos
Posted
in Al Dutcher's Blog
at 05:07AM on 11/05/2009
It appears conditions will remain favorable for harvest activity through Saturday. There is a slight risk for moisture from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, but the models continue to weaken this event with each successive run. In a span of two days, the models have went from heavy rain and snow to light rain and flurries. The next significant moisture chances right now are indicated from late next Wednesday through Thursday (11th-12th) If the models are correct, then accumulating snowfall would be possible across the western half of the state. The models then develop a monster storm next Saturday (14th) over the central Plains, similar in intensity to the pre-Halloween system. Confidence in the intensity and timing of the Thursday and Saturday storms are low-moderate right now. Recent model trends have develop systems to fast, so we might be seeing the models attempt to break down the central U.S. upper air ridge to quickly. That being said, often the depiction of a large storm in the later period forecasts indicates that the models are anticipating a major event, but are having trouble with the timing. This should serve as a warning that this stretch of dry weather and favorable harvest weather is likely to end sometime near mid-month.
Al
Allen Dutcher - State Climatologist
Nebraska State Climate Office
School of Natural Resources
University of Nebraska - Lincoln
724 Hardin Hall
3310 Holdredge Street
Lincoln, NE 68583-0987
Phone: (402)-472-5206
Fax: (402)-472-8763
email: adutcher1@unl.edu
SNR web site: http://snr.unl.edu
Al
Allen Dutcher - State Climatologist
Nebraska State Climate Office
School of Natural Resources
University of Nebraska - Lincoln
724 Hardin Hall
3310 Holdredge Street
Lincoln, NE 68583-0987
Phone: (402)-472-5206
Fax: (402)-472-8763
email: adutcher1@unl.edu
SNR web site: http://snr.unl.edu
Photos
Posted
in Al Dutcher's Blog
at 10:47AM on 10/27/2009
It appears another significant storm will impact the central U.S. over the next couple of days. Significant moisture is likely for Nebraska, with models indicating 0.50 - 2.00 inches of moisture through Friday morning for the eastern 2/3 of the state. Heaviest totals will be in areas receiving thunderstorm activity. For the western 1/3 of the state, significant snowfall accumulations are possible and I wouldn't be surprised to see 6-12 inches of snow across portions of the Panhandle and western sandhills. It will likely be wet, heavy snow that could result in some significant stalk breakage in corn and milo fields. The models have backed away from a second major system at the beginning of the month and keep most of the active weather north of the state through next Friday. Extreme northern Nebraska could catch the southern end of the Monday and Thursday storms, although moisture at this time appears light (less than 0.25 inches). Temperatures will be seasonable, with highs primarily in the 50's. If the forecast verifies there should be good harvest weather developing, especially across the southern 2/3 of the state.
Al
Allen Dutcher - State Climatologist
Nebraska State Climate Office
School of Natural Resources
University of Nebraska - Lincoln
724 Hardin Hall
3310 Holdredge Street
Lincoln, NE 68583-0987
Phone: (402)-472-5206
Fax: (402)-472-8763
email: adutcher1@unl.edu
SNR web site: http://snr.unl.edu
Al
Allen Dutcher - State Climatologist
Nebraska State Climate Office
School of Natural Resources
University of Nebraska - Lincoln
724 Hardin Hall
3310 Holdredge Street
Lincoln, NE 68583-0987
Phone: (402)-472-5206
Fax: (402)-472-8763
email: adutcher1@unl.edu
SNR web site: http://snr.unl.edu
Photos
Posted
in Al Dutcher's Blog
at 05:37AM on 10/23/2009
It appears that the system currently working into the central U.S. will bring an abundance of moisture to the eastern 2/3 of the state. Quantitative precipitation forecasts point to 1-2 inches of moisture, with the heaviest totals south of I-80 from Hebron to Falls City. This region may experience isolated thunderstorms with hail being the primary severe weather threat. As the system pulls out of the region late Wednesday into early Thursday, some of the moisture may change to snow with accumulations possible across central Nebraska. At this time, nothing more than a dusting is expected due to warm ground and change over occurring at the tail end of the storm. The next weather maker moves into the area late Saturday into early Sunday with light showers and/or mixing with a few snow showers. Not a lot of moisture for this system to work with, primarily low level moisture left over from tonight and tomorrows storm. Temperature will remain below normal (upper 40's to upper 50's) through Sunday, with warming conditions (50's and 60's) into early next week. Another storm will enter the region late Tuesday into Wednesday and bring a chance of rain and snow to the state. Highs will drop back into the 40's. Models currently indicate that benign weather will hold across Nebraska until November 2nd when a strong storm is projected to hit the central U.S.
Al
Al
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